2022 senate predictions
Most of the vote reporting so far is early, and Democrats are expected to win those votes by a large margin. These numbers reflect first-choice votes, After the midterms, America and its democracy look stronger, A Republican victory will be much smaller than Democrats feared. The media has given Oz and Walker plenty of attention as the GOPs worst Senate candidates, but Johnson might be right Two of the biggest discrepancies between actual and predicted vote margins involved the same candidate: West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin. The Timess election results pages are produced by Michael Andre, Aliza Aufrichtig, Kristen Bayrakdarian, Neil Berg, Matthew Bloch, Vronique Brossier, Irineo Cabreros, Sean Catangui, Andrew Chavez, Nate Cohn, Lindsey Rogers Cook, Alastair Coote, Annie Daniel, Saurabh Datar, Avery Dews, Asmaa Elkeurti, Tiffany Fehr, Andrew Fischer, Lazaro Gamio, Martn Gonzlez Gmez, Will Houp, Jon Huang, Samuel Jacoby, Jason Kao, Josh Katz, Aaron Krolik, Jasmine C. Lee, Vivian Li, Rebecca Lieberman, Ilana Marcus, Alicia Parlapiano, Jaymin Patel, Marcus Payadue, Matt Ruby, Rachel Shorey, Charlie Smart, Umi Syam, Jaime Tanner, James Thomas, Urvashi Uberoy, Ege Uz, Isaac White and Christine Zhang. In Wisconsin, Senator Ron Johnson, a Republican, is up for re-election against Lt. Gov. These are our estimates for which party will win control of the House, and the estimated number of seats won by each party. Lazaro Gamio These charts show how our forecasts have changed over the course of the night. The reason we need to do what youre describing which is to go into places that werent available to us before is that we need this victory to be as big as possible. Albert Sun Maggie Astor Democrats have the potential to flip 6 seats in the Senate in 2022. Speaking of DeSantiss rightward lurch, Bidens reelection video cites GOP book bans and attacks on LGBTQ rights as threats to American freedom and equality. From this video, its very clear that Joe Biden is going to go there. Heres how they performed when compared with the 2020 presidential candidates. Albert Sun First, DeSantis has to win the primary, which doesnt look very likely at this point. Elissa Slotkin, Democrat, wins re-election to the U.S. House to represent Michigans Seventh Congressional District. Were forecasting the race to control the Senate and House, as well as each partys chance of winning the 36 governors seats up for election. Rep. Ted Budd of North Carolina, a Trump-backed conservative, beat Cheri Beasley, a Democrat, to capture retiring Senator Richard Burr's seat. Theres an enormous amount to work with here. Lazaro Gamio Maggie Astor In all likelihood that will be the case again in 2022 a handful of close contests will decide which party controls the upper chamber. The race for North Carolinas open Senate seat is leaning toward Representative Ted Budd, a Republican, according to our estimates. Read more What Election Day looks like based on polls alone, What Election Day looks like based on polls, fundraising, past voting patterns and more, What Election Day looks like when we add experts ratings to the Classic forecast. The predictions for races expected to be relatively close, with predicted margins of less than 10 points, were only correct a little over two-thirds of the time. Nov. 8, 2022, The Timess election forecast is now running. . Click here! Today, Democrats control the U.S. Senate by the slimmest of margins Vice President Kamala Harris serves as the tiebreaking vote in a chamber thats divided 50-50. Updated Every Day with the Latest Polling. We value on-the-ground sourcing above everything else. Polls Underestimated. 465 Crestwood DriveP.O. In Arizona, Democrat and former astronaut Mark Kelly defeated the appointed Republican incumbent, Martha McSally, while in Georgia, Democrat Jon Ossoff, a documentary filmmaker and former congressional aide, defeated Republican incumbent David Perdue, and Democrat Raphael Warnock, pastor of Ebenezer Baptist Church in Atlanta, defeated appointed Republican incumbent Kelly Loeffler. Laura Kelly is Democrats' most vulnerable incumbent on the ballot this year. , Brian Kemp, the Republican governor of Georgia, defeated his Democratic challenger, Stacey Abrams, for a second time. Indeed, we would narrowly favor Republicans to win in Nevada and Wisconsin, though both races remain extremely tight. The polls are now closed in Georgia, South Carolina, Virginia and Vermont, and in parts of Florida and New Hampshire. , Gov. Democratic candidates won the large majority of contests in 2012 and 2018 while Republicans won the large majority of contests in 2014, 2016, and 2020. All rights reserved. GOP Gov. Maura Healey, the newly elected Democratic governor of Massachusetts is the first openly lesbian woman to be elected governor in the United States. I've collected a few races I think you should keep your eyeon. Terms of service | Privacy Policy | Do not sell my info | Notice to California Residents, Design & development: Andrew Briz, Beatrice Jin, Arjun Kakkar, Andrew McGill, Allan James Vestal, Audience & strategy: Caroline Amenabar, Annie Bryan, Kam Burns, Isabel Dobrin, Annie Yu, Elana Zak. While it is not enough to prevent filibustering, the 4 rational Republicans (Collins, Murkowski, Romney and Sasse) shall helped by preventing unwanted filibuster abuse. Democratic Rep. Haley Stevens survived a member-versus-member primary in August likely the biggest obstacle to her reelection. Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock and Republican Herschel Walker are on a November collision course in the most closely divided state of the 2020 presidential election. contact info. Voters in Kentucky narrowly rejected an amendment to the State Constitution that would have said there is no right to abortion in their state. U.S. Senate, Pennsylvania, 2024 March 8, 2023 U.S. Senate, Washington, 2024 Feb. 21, 2023 U.S. Senate, Montana, 2024 Feb. 9, 2023 U.S. Senate, Arizona, 2024 avg. Karen Tumulty: Biden defines the central question of the 2024 election. Contests were only counted once per cycle, so the 2013 Massachusetts and New Jersey special elections were omitted because those same seats were also contested in the 2014 November general election. The other interesting finding in Table 3 is that the large majority of erroneous predictions, 12 of 16, involved Democratic victories in contests that Republicans were expected to win. Alicia Parlapiano Seth Magaziner, Democrat, wins U.S. House seat to represent Rhode Islands Second Congressional District. Democratic Rep. Sanford Bishop is still favored for reelection, but GOP Gov. Web2022 Senate. Despite endless hopeful invocations of but polls show that people like our positions, the truth is that the Democratic Party has been pulled far enough left that even lots of non-crazy people find us just plain scary something that Fox News takes vigorous advantage of. Much like the safe Republican states, the following states are a sure-shot for Democrats. Lazaro Gamio Nov. 10, 2022, Support for the abortion proposal was stronger than support for reelected Governor Gretchen Whitmer, a Democrat, in 76 of the states 83 counties. We're tracking new legislative maps as they come out, and crunching the numbers. Stacey Abrams has conceded to Brian Kemp, the Republican governor of Georgia. The Republican argument looks today even more preposterous and ridiculous. Senate elections in California (2016 and 2018), Alabama (2014), and Arkansas (2020) were excluded because there were not 2 major-party candidates in the general election. Is the nations political realignment driving a state or congressional district from one partys column to the other? Welcome to our. This has to be the driving goal of the party this cycle. Colorados Third District is leaning toward Lauren Boebert, an ardent supporter of Donald Trump, according to our estimates. While Tuesdays election represented a strong performance by a first-term presidents party, the individual showings of Senate candidates varied widely. But poor candidates could hurt their chances, as they have in some other recent Senate races. Your guide to the midterm results, from Times reporters, Democrats held onto or gained trifectas in a number of states and fended off Republican supermajorities in others. Here are my predictions how the races will pan out and some points of caution Democrats should note to secure the Senate in 2022. Nov. 8, 2022, Pennsylvania is home to a close Senate race between Lt. Gov. Does one of the candidates have a fully-booked 747 worth of baggage? Heres how it works Its about 15 months for the mid-term elections in the United States. Heres who won In Arizona, 604 likely voters were surveyed from Oct. 24 to Oct. 26. GOP Rep. Don Bacons race is one to watch. The 2022 Senate Forecast uses a sophisticated model that includes polling, historic trends, and fundraising to create its projections. Nov. 8, 2022, Rural counties in Virginias 7th district are counting votes more quickly than its most populous and left-leaning county, Prince William. Follow along here For more, explore our 2024 GOP Primary polling average. Aside from that, the main action at this hour will be in the House, with a close race in Washingtons 8th District and at least half a dozen in California. U.S. House Calif. 3 R+3 36% Calif. 9 D+17 Among them: Pennsylvania, Michigan and Texas. Nov. 8, 2022, Its still early, but Fetterman is running ahead of Biden in five Pennsylvania counties that have reported nearly all of their votes. But in many of the most consequential statewide races, Democrats enter Election Day still in the hunt thanks to their candidates strong fundraising and polls that show, for now, they are running ahead of President Joe Bidens poor approval ratings. Gov Nate Cohn Forecast Model Created & Designed by Logan Phillipsif(typeof ez_ad_units!='undefined'){ez_ad_units.push([[728,90],'racetothewh_com-medrectangle-3','ezslot_3',639,'0','0'])};__ez_fad_position('div-gpt-ad-racetothewh_com-medrectangle-3-0'); Looking for the National Picture for the 2022 Senate Forecast? ADHD is an illness, not a lifestyle. Republicans' late primary complicates their quest to oust Democratic Sen. Maggie Hassan in the nation's smallest swing state. . Because Alaska uses ranked choice voting, we may not know the winner until Nov. 23. To read recent stories on the race for the Senate, click here. Results But this work can get done during the campaign. Some of our partners may process your data as a part of their legitimate business interest without asking for consent. It could be awhile before all votes are counted. Our House forecast is based on past results, polling data and the current vote count. Republicans would need just two tossup seats beyond what they are favored to win. I'm Steve Shepard, and with the help of my smart colleagues Web2022 Senate - State Projections. We're tracking new legislative maps as they come out, and crunching the numbers. His Republican challenger, Herschel Walker, is backed by Donald Trump. Republicans have flipped four House seats in New York, two districts on Long Island and two in the Hudson Valley. Kevin Drum (July 3, 2021). The remaining vote there could tighten the race as it is counted. House Democrats' most iconoclastic member, Rep. Jared Golden, is betting his brand of centrism can overcome a challenging political environment. You deserve to hear our thinking. There is also an unexpectedly competitive Senate race in Utah between Senator Mike Lee, a Republican, and Evan McMullin, an independent. Explore the full list of features on our site map. The estimates for each race are based on the votes reported so far, historical voting data, and the results of demographically similar places where votes have been counted. 1.2 Close races. These results suggest that Republicans have a slight edge in the 2022 Senate elections when it comes to potential seat swing based on the fundamentals in these races. The greater success of Democratic candidates in states won by the opposing partys presidential candidate was crucial to their ability to win a slight majority of Senate races during these years. In Wisconsin, GOP Sen. Ron Johnson jumped out to a lead earlier this fall, but the final polls suggest that Democrat Mandela Barnes remains in contention. The Democrats should not focus much attention on these states and instead focus on the other states assuming they are on a mission to secure 60 seats, to prevent filibustering of bills. Where Senate Candidates Outperformed Biden and Trump. Senator Lisa Murkowski, a Republican, is facing a strong challenge from the Trump-endorsed Kelly Tshibaka. One of the most highly watched and dissected and forecastedbattles during the 2022 midterm elections is the Senate race. We use early returns and polling data to estimate in real time the outcome of the elections for Senate and House control. Nov. 9, 2022, Majority-Hispanic counties in Florida voted to reelect Gov. With Republicans enjoying a consistent lead of 2-3 points on the generic ballot according to the FiveThirtyEight polling average, the results indicated that the GOP was very likely to gain enough seats in November to take control of the House of Representatives. Yet Democrats often refrain from challenging right-wing culture-warring, as if they believe those are losing issues. Who will protect women from the courts and legislatures. I think this is work thats not done. We predict most Americans will be led by Democraticgovernors. We got to 55 percent in Michigan. Our Senate forecast is based on past results, polling data and the current vote count. See the Senate forecast * This is FiveThirtyEights best guess as to who the nominee will be, based on an analysis of incumbency, polls, fundraising, previous For that to be the case, Rosenberg must be right about his core idea: Despite pundits tendency to overestimate MAGA, its rise has given Democrats a major opening to expand their coalition. When reported data comes in that is not what we expected, our model will update and incorporate this new data. Hes outperforming Biden across the state and is currently up 8 points in counties that were the closest in 2020. For the final pre-election results projection, click here. If DeSantis can energize the MAGA base while partially reversing the educational realignment that Trump ushered in, thats a major problem, no? Incumbent: Republican Rob Portman (retiring) Trumps strength in Ohio John Fetterman has been locked in a bitter contest against Mehmet Oz, the Republican celebrity doctor. As more races are called, the uncertainty around these estimates will narrow. Christine Zhang All rights reserved. , Frank J. Mrvan, Democrat, wins re-election to the U.S. House to represent Indianas First Congressional District. Gov. Possibly. The Democrats need to win roughly twice as many of the most competitive districts as Republicans to keep control of the House. Do you think that some of these big climate and infrastructure investments which are going to spur green manufacturing jobs in some very red places can shift the paradigm on how working-class White people view climate change and government spending? Vance, the author and venture capitalist who is endorsed by Donald Trump, is competing with Representative Tim Ryan, a Democrat. If the two parties split those six seats evenly, Republicans will win a 51-49 majority. In the current 50-50 Senate, only 6 members represent states that voted for the opposing partys presidential candidate in 2020 3 Democrats (Ohios Sherrod Brown, West Virginias Joe Manchin, and Montanas Jon Tester) and 3 Republicans (Maines Susan Collins, Wisconsins Ron Johnson, and Pennsylvanias Pat Toomey). This finding reflects the increasing nationalization of Senate elections in the 21st century. These contests should be regarded as Toss-ups. Does the Democratic Party have a liberal cultural answer to DeSantis? Republicans and MAGA have left a lot of political real estate for us to go claim if we are aggressive about it. I've collected a few races I think you should keep your eyeon. Note: Win probabilities may not add up to 100 because of third-party candidates. , The Hillbilly Elegy author and Republican J.D. *Alaskas Senate race uses ranked-choice voting. but if its not done with empathy and tact it risks outrunning the vast middle part of the country, which progressive activists seem completely uninterested in talking to. The latest Last updated Nov. 8, 2022 Our final forecast for the Senate is a toss-up, with Republicans slightly favored over Democrats. The Associated Press also provides estimates for the share of votes reported, which are shown for races for which The Times does not publish its own estimates. You write that Bidens argument for reelection is simple: Hes done a good job, and the country is better off. Gingrich 2022 Prediction: Senate Will Go +3 to +5 With GOP Pickups in NH, NV, AZ & GA Without Runoff, +44 Seats In House. Web2022 United States Senate elections 2020 November 8, 2022 December 6 ( Georgia runoff) 2024 35 of the 100 seats in the United States Senate 51 [a] seats needed for a majority Results of the elections: Democratic gain Democratic hold Republican hold No election Rectangular inset ( Oklahoma ): both seats up for election final pre-election results projection, click here. In several of these races, the discrepancy between the predicted and actual results was quite large. Beyond the wins and losses, another prominent aspect of recent Senate elections is the overall lack of competition. Box 400806 Charlottesville, VA 22904. Democratic incumbents (87%) and Republican incumbents (88%) were equally successful. Redistricting will change everything. Nov. 9, 2022, The Senate races in Georgia, Nevada and Arizona are very tight, and vote counting is expected to drag into the week. that guide every prediction he makes. Lazaro Gamio Click here! Centrist anti-fascist and anti-communist. This discrepancy reflects the small state bias of the Senate, which results in an overrepresentation of Republican-leaning states. Democratic Rep. Abigail Spanberger is seeking a third term in a district President Joe Biden won by 6 points in 2020 but now-Gov. Out of 170 races contested by both major parties, 43% were decided by a margin of 20 points or more, 28% were decided by a margin of 10-20 points, and 15% were decided by a margin of 5-10 points. The polls are now closed in Arizona, Colorado, Minnesota, New York, Wisconsin and several other states. In 2022, we saw Democrats grow their vote percentages in seven battleground states. With a 5050 Senate, the vice president should be the kingmaker and cast the tie-breaking vote. We and our partners share information on your use of this website to help improve your experience. When POLITICOs Election Forecast launched earlier this year, the Senate was rated Lean Republican. After Democrats summer comeback, that rating moved to Toss Up, which is where it ends but with a bullet. We rated every race in play in 2022. While the 2 parties split these contests almost evenly, with Democratic candidates winning 89 contests and Republican candidates winning 85, there was considerable variation from year to year. Vance won Ohio handily even as almost every part of the state voted more for Democrats than they did in 2020. Web1 Predictions. Republican Mehmet Oz is seeking to close a deficit with Democrat John Fetterman in the open-seat race. We got to 57 percent in Pennsylvania. 2022 United States Senate election in Missouri, https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=2022_Missouri_State_Senate_election&oldid=1152538134, 2022 state legislature elections in the United States, Short description with empty Wikidata description, Wikipedia articles in need of updating from April 2023, All Wikipedia articles in need of updating, Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike License 3.0, This page was last edited on 30 April 2023, at 21:09. For the open Senate seat in Ohio, J.D. Read more To retain control of the House, Democrats must win 46 of these seats (after accounting for the races the parties are expected to win most easily). Our model predicted that the Republican nominee would win the race by about 16 points, but Moore ended up losing to Jones by 1.6 points. The Republican nominee, Richard Mourdock, a staunch conservative, defeated the more moderate incumbent, Richard Lugar, in the GOP primary. Nov. 8, 2022, Democrat Tim Ryan leads Republican J.D. Albert Sun Im Fivey Fox! Senator Raphael Warnock of Georgia, a Democrat, won a runoff election to defeat Herschel Walker, a Trump-backed Republican and former football star. We rated every race in play in 2022. Lazaro Gamio Though Republicans have put forward weak candidates in battleground states like Pennsylvania, Arizona, and Georgia, the wind is behind their backs heading into November 8. Ron DeSantis winning the early vote in Miami-Dade County which voted for Hillary Clinton by +29 points just six years ago is yet another sign of growing Republican strength among Hispanic voters. Nov. 10, 2022, As of noon Eastern time, Democrats have won 190 House seats, Republicans have won 208, and 37 are still undecided. Jen Kiggans, Republican, wins U.S. House seat to represent Virginias Second Congressional District. Toggle Predictions subsection 1.1 Statewide. This work really does have to be done, right? Its important that our goal is not just to win the election but to have it feel like a profound repudiation of MAGA. An example of data being processed may be a unique identifier stored in a cookie. Yet you also acknowledge that Democrats are underwater on the economy. 465 Crestwood Drive P.O. With the 2022 midterms just hours away, Senate races in the countrys battleground states look closer than ever. We analyzed every House, Senate and gubernatorial seat to determine who we think will win the 2022 midterm elections. In contrast, predictions for races with predicted margins of 10 points or more were correct over 95% of the time. Senator Michael Bennet of Colorado, a Democrat, was elected to a third term, holding off a strong challenge from a Republican newcomer. Officials say the timing of results will depend on how many people return their ballots at the last minute on Election Day. Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan, a Democrat, won a tough re-election race against her Republican rival, Tudor Dixon. Along with explaining 84% of the variance in Senate election margins, the 3 variable model correctly predicted the winner of 154 of 170 contested races between 2012 and 2020. Republicans' South Texas surge could net them this congressional seat. I will still predict that Democrats will retain the seat, assuming Chris Sununu will run again for governor and a candidate with Trumps blessings runs. Similarly, Democratic Sen. Maggie Hassan is narrowly ahead of GOP candidate Don Bolduc in New Hampshire, though Bolduc is within striking distance. . The reason I would even consider a chance for Republicans is similar to Louisiana for Democrats. Democrat Katie Hobbs vs. Republican Kari Lake is one of the marquee races of the 2022 midterms. Lazaro Gamio * This is FiveThirtyEights best guess as to who the nominee will be, based on an analysis of incumbency, polls, fundraising, previous experience and endorsements. We're constantly speaking with campaigns to form our ratings. Nevadas Senate race is rated a tossup by the Cook Political Report. Representative Sean Patrick Maloney has conceded defeat to Mike Lawler, a first-term Republican state assemblyman. Kennedy Elliott Greg Abbott brushed off a well-funded challenge from Beto ORourke, winning a third term as Texas governor. RCP Average 0 Days to Election Day. No Electoral College majority, House decides election. He's happy to chat about weather forecasting too. California, Michigan, Kentucky and Montana also have abortion referendums on the ballot. Democrats also won the Governors office, State Senate, and appear poised to take the State Assembly, and voters affirmed abortion rights in the state. Current House. Reporting by Grace Ashford, Maggie Astor, Michael C. Bender, Sarah Borell, Sarah Cahalan, Emily Cochrane, Nick Corasaniti, Jill Cowan, Catie Edmondson, Reid J. Epstein, Nicholas Fandos, Lalena Fisher, Trip Gabriel, Katie Glueck, J. David Goodman, Blake Hounshell, Shawn Hubler, Annie Karni, Maya King, Stephanie Lai, Lisa Lerer, Jonathan Martin, Patricia Mazzei, Alyce McFadden, Jennifer Medina, Azi Paybarah, Mitch Smith, Tracey Tully, Jazmine Ulloa, Neil Vigdor and Jonathan Weisman; production by Andy Chen, Amanda Cordero, Alex Garces, Chris Kahley, Laura Kaltman, Andrew Rodriguez and Jessica White; editing by Wilson Andrews, Kenan Davis, William P. Davis, Kennedy Elliott, Amy Hughes, Ben Koski, Allison McCartney and Karen Workman.
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